
As of 2025, African geopolitics is shaped by a mix of internal dynamics, regional alliances, military coups, and the strategic interests of global powers......
As of 2025, African geopolitics is shaped by a mix of internal dynamics, regional alliances, military coups, and the strategic interests of global powers like China, the US, Russia, and the EU. Below is a broad overview of the major alliances and rivalries currently influencing the continent:
General Political Trends
- Rise of Military Governments:
- Since 2020, several countries have experienced military coups: Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger, and Gabon.
- These juntas often claim to fight corruption, terrorism, or neo-colonial influence, especially French.
- Democracy vs Authoritarianism:
- Some states remain democracies (e.g., Kenya, Ghana, Senegal), while others have drifted toward authoritarian rule (Rwanda, Uganda, Egypt, Eritrea).
- Electoral processes are often disputed, especially in fragile democracies like Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and DR Congo.
- Pan-Africanism Resurgence:
- A younger generation of leaders and citizens is reviving Pan-African rhetoric, often opposing foreign military bases and neo-colonial economic control.
Major Regional Alliances
- ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States):
- Members: Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, etc.
- Mission: Promote democracy, integration, economic growth.
- Rivalry: Faces strong resistance from coup-led states like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, who have suspended or quit the bloc.
- AES Alliance (Alliance of Sahel States):
- Formed in 2023 by Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
- Anti-French, pro-sovereignty, and increasingly aligned with Russia.
- They rejected ECOWAS sanctions and cooperate on defense and security.
- East African Community (EAC):
- Members: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, DRC, Burundi, Somalia (joining).
- Goal: Political federation and economic integration.
- Tensions: Rwanda-DRC (due to M23 rebel issues), Uganda-Kenya trade spats.
- SADC (Southern African Development Community):
- Includes: South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Angola, etc.
- More stable but struggling with political issues in Zimbabwe and security problems in northern Mozambique.
- IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development):
- Focuses on Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Kenya, etc.).
- Challenge: Regional conflicts (Sudan civil war, Somali instability, Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions).
Major Rivalries
- West Africa: ECOWAS vs. AES:
- ECOWAS, led by Nigeria, is under pressure after failing to restore democracy in Niger.
- AES blames ECOWAS for being a puppet of France and the West.
- Horn of Africa Tensions:
- Ethiopia vs. Egypt/Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and control of Nile waters.
- Sudan Civil War (RSF vs SAF) destabilizes neighbors.
- DR Congo vs Rwanda:
- DRC accuses Rwanda of backing M23 rebels in eastern Congo.
- A proxy conflict over minerals and regional dominance.
- Morocco vs. Algeria:
- Rooted in the Western Sahara dispute.
- Algeria backs the Polisario Front, while Morocco claims the territory.
- Borders remain closed; diplomatic relations severed.
Global Powers and Influence
- Russia:
- Growing influence via Wagner Group and military deals (especially in AES countries and CAR).
- Seen as an alternative to Western influence.
- China:
- Focused on economic influence: infrastructure, loans, and trade.
- Maintains a neutral political stance but heavily invested across Africa.
- France:
- Losing ground due to anti-French sentiment, especially in former colonies.
- Forced to withdraw troops from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger.
- United States:
- Focused on counterterrorism, democracy promotion, and countering Russian/Chinese influence.
- Presence in the Sahel is being recalibrated.
- Turkey, UAE, Saudi Arabia:
- Competing in the Horn and North Africa through ports, mosques, and business ties.
- Turkey is also active in Somalia and Libya.
Summary Table
Region | Major Alliance(s) | Key Rivalries |
---|---|---|
West Africa | ECOWAS vs AES | AES vs ECOWAS; coups vs democracies |
Central Africa | ECCAS (weaker) | DRC vs Rwanda (M23 conflict) |
East Africa | EAC, IGAD | Ethiopia vs Egypt (Nile); DRC vs EAC |
North Africa | Arab Maghreb Union (inactive) | Morocco vs Algeria (W. Sahara) |
Southern Africa | SADC | Zimbabwe instability; Cabo Delgado |
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