The Guardian highlights a study revealing that the first 15 months of Israel’s war on Gaza will produce over 31 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions—exceeding the annual emissions of over 100 countries. This massive carbon footprint stems from relentless bombardment, infrastructure destruction, and future reconstruction, compounding the global climate crisis. Despite such environmental damage, military emissions remain exempt from UN reporting requirements. The report also underscores the asymmetry of the conflict, fueled by Western military and diplomatic support, and calls for urgent action to address the environmental impact of warfare. Let’s analyze the carbon footprint of the Israel-Gaza Conflict.
1. Introduction: War Beyond the Battlefield
Armed conflict is often assessed through humanitarian, political, and legal lenses. However, increasingly, the environmental costs of war are drawing attention from researchers and media. The Guardian‘s coverage of a new study reveals that the Israel-Gaza conflict, particularly from October 2023 to early 2025, carries an alarming climate burden that rivals the total annual emissions of many entire nations.
2. Key Findings of the Study
The core claim of the study reported by The Guardian is stark:
“The carbon footprint of the first 15 months of Israel’s war on Gaza will be greater than the annual planet-warming emissions of a hundred individual countries.”
- Estimated Carbon Footprint: The projected emissions from the destruction, debris clearance, and eventual reconstruction of Gaza could exceed 31 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e).
- Comparative Emissions: This figure surpasses the combined 2023 emissions of Costa Rica and Estonia, nations known for their relatively small carbon footprints and environmentally progressive policies.
- Scope of Emissions: The emissions encompass not only active military operations (air strikes, drone surveillance, fuel consumption by aircraft and tanks), but also passive consequences such as debris management, reconstruction, and the disruption of local infrastructure (energy, water, sanitation).
3. Implications for the Climate Crisis
The war’s emissions are not isolated events; they compound existing global efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. This conflict:
- Exacerbates the Climate Emergency: At a time when global CO₂ emissions must be drastically reduced to meet the 1.5°C target, such military-induced surges in emissions are especially damaging.
- Invisible in Reporting Mechanisms: Notably, military emissions are not obligated to be reported to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), creating a loophole in accountability. This exemption hinders accurate global carbon accounting and undermines international climate targets.
- Environmental Injustice: The people of Gaza—already bearing the brunt of humanitarian catastrophe—also face the long-term environmental fallout, with potential increases in air and soil pollution, heat island effects due to urban ruin, and worsening public health.
4. Asymmetry and Responsibility
The report highlights the asymmetry of military capacity and environmental impact:
- Israel’s Industrial Military Complex: Supported heavily by the US and UK, Israel’s military operations rely on energy-intensive weapons systems, aerial bombardments, and surveillance technologies that emit large amounts of CO₂.
- Lack of International Compliance: Israel’s disregard for International Court of Justice (ICJ) rulings and its sustained blockade of Gaza compound both human and ecological destruction.
- Structural Support from Allies: Military and diplomatic backing from Western states helps perpetuate a system where climate and human rights responsibilities are obscured or ignored in the context of “security.”
5. Broader Context: Militarism and the Climate Crisis
This case study underlines a broader truth: militaries are among the world’s largest institutional polluters. According to previous research:
- The US military alone emits more greenhouse gases than many industrialized countries.
- Rebuilding efforts after warfare often involve carbon-intensive processes, particularly in urban settings reliant on concrete, steel, and diesel-based logistics.
6. Conclusion: From War to Warming
The war on Gaza is not just a geopolitical or humanitarian crisis—it is also an ecological one. The study discussed by The Guardian exposes how unregulated military activity contributes significantly to the climate emergency. As the world struggles to meet net-zero goals, overlooking military emissions not only distorts carbon accountability but also erases the environmental dimension of war crimes and occupation.
Policy Recommendations
- Mandate Military Emission Reporting: The UNFCCC should close loopholes allowing states to exclude military emissions from national inventories.
- Ceasefire for Climate: Advocating for ceasefires and diplomatic solutions is not only a humanitarian imperative but also an ecological one.
- Green Reconstruction: Any future rebuilding of Gaza must prioritize sustainable materials and clean energy infrastructure to avoid compounding the environmental toll.
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