Water has become one of the most strategic and contentious resources in the 21st century, especially in South Asia where two nuclear-armed neighbors, India and Pakistan, share several major rivers. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 was designed to regulate the use of these rivers, but growing mistrust and changing political dynamics have pushed the region toward what many experts now term a “War on Water.” Central to this emerging front is the Chenab River and Jhelum River, which flow through the disputed territory of Kashmir, making it both a geographical and geopolitical flashpoint in the Indo-Pak rivalry, shaping into a war on water.
Indus River System Map
1. The Jhelum River: Lifeline and Flashpoint
The Jhelum River, originating from Verinag in Indian-administered Kashmir, passes through Srinagar, the region’s largest city, before crossing into Pakistan. It is the largest of the western rivers allocated to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty, and forms the backbone of water supply for Punjab and parts of Sindh in Pakistan.
- Strategic Importance of Jhelum:
- Feeds vital irrigation networks in Pakistan.
- Powers major hydroelectric projects like the Mangla Dam.
- Supports agriculture and drinking water needs for millions.
Because the Jhelum flows first through Indian-administered Kashmir, India holds significant geographical leverage that can potentially be turned into hydro-political pressure.
2. Chenab River
- Origin: The Chenab is formed by the confluence of two rivers — Chandra and Bhaga — in the Himachal Pradesh region of India.
- It flows into the Jammu region of Indian-administered Kashmir, passing through Doda, Ramban, and Reasi districts before crossing into Pakistan near the Sialkot region.
- India has constructed or planned several hydroelectric projects on the Chenab, including Baglihar, Salal, Dul Hasti, and Ratle—all in Jammu & Kashmir.
3. Indus River
- Origin: The Indus River originates near Lake Manasarovar in Tibet (China).
- It enters Ladakh in Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir (now reorganized as the Union Territory of Ladakh) and flows northwest through Gilgit-Baltistan (disputed but administered by Pakistan), eventually entering mainland Pakistan.
- So, a portion of the Indus flows through Indian-administered Ladakh, giving India some access to its upper reaches.
4. Kashmir: Water Hub at the Heart of Conflict
Kashmir is not only a territorial dispute, but also a hydrological gateway. The region hosts the headwaters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers, all vital for Pakistan’s water security. Control over these rivers makes Kashmir the linchpin of water politics between India and Pakistan.
- The Jhelum’s passage through Srinagar means any water infrastructure built by India in this region has direct implications for downstream flows into Pakistan.
- From a Pakistani perspective, Indian dams or diversions in Kashmir are seen as strategic tools to exert pressure in times of tension or war.
5. India’s Water Infrastructure Projects on Chenab and Jhelum
India has in recent years accelerated the construction of hydroelectric and water control projects in Jammu and Kashmir, citing energy needs and rights under the Indus Waters Treaty. Some of these projects include:
- Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project (330 MW): Diverts water from a tributary of the Jhelum (Neelum River) to the Wular Lake basin.
- Lower Jhelum Hydroelectric Project: Located near Baramulla.
- Tulbul Navigation Project (Wular Barrage): A controversial project on the Jhelum, originally suspended under Pakistani objections, but India has shown interest in reviving it.
- Hydroelectric projects on the Chenab, including Baglihar, Salal, Dul Hasti, and Ratle—all in Jammu & Kashmir.
While India claims these are “run-of-the-river” projects allowed under the IWT, Pakistan fears they give India the ability to manipulate water flow during critical periods, particularly during sowing or harvest seasons, or even during diplomatic standoffs.
6. Treaty under Strain: Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)
Signed in 1960 under World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty has withstood wars and crises. It allocated:
- Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Sutlej, Beas) to India.
- Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan, with limited Indian usage.
However, the treaty is increasingly seen as outdated in light of:
- Climate change and shrinking glacial flows.
- Increased water demands on both sides.
- Growing Indian resentment that Pakistan enjoys the lion’s share of water.
- Pakistan’s fear of India weaponizing water as a geostrategic tool.
Indian political rhetoric, especially after terror attacks (e.g., Pulwama in 2019), has included threats to “revisit” or “maximize” the usage of western rivers—something Pakistan sees as a direct threat to its agricultural economy and national survival.
7. Geopolitical and Environmental Implications
Pakistan’s Vulnerability:
- Over 90% of Pakistan’s agriculture is irrigated through Indus and its tributaries.
- A sharp decrease in river inflow, even temporarily, could devastate food production and spark civil unrest.
India’s Strategic Calculus:
- Using water as a pressure point could provide non-kinetic leverage in diplomacy or military standoffs.
- The infrastructure allows India technical control without directly violating the IWT, though interpretations differ.
Environmental Risks:
- Dams and diversions risk altering the ecology of the river system.
- The glacier-fed Jhelum is already under stress due to climate change.
- Water scarcity in Pakistan may increase reliance on groundwater, further stressing aquifers.
8. Path to Conflict or Cooperation?
The weaponization of water in the Indo-Pak context risks turning a manageable resource-sharing issue into a flashpoint with catastrophic consequences. Some experts argue that water can be a bridge rather than a wedge, given both nations’ shared dependence and vulnerability.
- Track-II diplomacy and technical commissions under the IWT still function.
- But the politicization of water issues, particularly in the media and electoral politics, makes long-term cooperation fragile.
- There is growing advocacy in Pakistan for international arbitration and bringing water issues to forums like the International Court of Justice or UN.
Conclusion
The Indus River System, flowing from the heart of Kashmir, has become an instrument in the evolving strategic calculus between India and Pakistan. As India expands its water infrastructure in Kashmir and Pakistan views it with suspicion and alarm, the “War on Water” is no longer a metaphor but a stark possibility. While both countries have mechanisms for dialogue, the fusion of territorial conflict with hydro-politics makes the stakes alarmingly high. Without mutual restraint and visionary leadership, South Asia risks turning its shared rivers from sources of life into tools of leverage and coercion.
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