Fragile States Index

The Fragile States Index (FSI) is an annual report published by the Fund for Peace, assessing the stability and resilience of countries worldwide. It aims to highlight vulnerabilities that might lead to conflict or state collapse. The index provides a framework to understand the complexities of fragile states and track their progress or decline over time.

Measurement of the Fragile States Index

The FSI is measured using a comprehensive and data-driven approach that involves qualitative and quantitative indicators. The Fund for Peace uses three primary sources of data:

Content Analysis: This involves analyzing millions of articles and reports from electronic and print media to identify and track significant events and trends within a country.
Quantitative Data: This includes a wide array of publicly available data sources, such as those from international organizations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and governmental institutions.
Qualitative Data: This is derived from the expert analysis and assessments provided by the Fund for Peace’s analysts and consultants.

Parameters Considered

The FSI uses 12 primary indicators, grouped into four categories: Social, Economic, Political, and Cohesion. Each indicator is further divided into several sub-indicators, offering a nuanced view of a state’s performance. The main indicators are:

Social Indicators

Demographic Pressures: Issues related to population density, natural disasters, disease, and environmental hazards.
Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): Numbers and conditions of refugees and IDPs within a country.
Group Grievance: Tensions and violence between different groups, including ethnic, religious, or other identity-based divisions.
Human Flight and Brain Drain: Emigration of professionals and intellectuals and the impact on a country.

Economic Indicators

Uneven Economic Development: Disparities in wealth and economic opportunities among different groups or regions within a country.
Poverty and Economic Decline: Levels of poverty, unemployment, and economic stability.

Political Indicators

State Legitimacy: Corruption, lack of representativeness, and other issues affecting the government’s legitimacy.
Public Services: Provision of basic services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure.
Human Rights and Rule of Law: Protection of human rights and adherence to the rule of law.

Cohesion Indicators

Security Apparatus: Presence of armed conflict, terrorism, and other forms of political violence.
Factionalized Elites: Fragmentation and competition among political and economic elites.
External Intervention: Influence and intervention by external actors, such as foreign governments or international organizations.

Each of these indicators is scored on a scale from 0 to 10, with higher scores indicating greater fragility. The total score for each country is the sum of its scores across all 12 indicators, with a maximum possible score of 120. Countries are then ranked based on their total scores, with higher-ranked countries being considered more fragile.

The FSI provides a critical tool for policymakers, researchers, and international organizations to monitor and address the vulnerabilities of states, aiming to prevent conflict and promote stability.