Experiencing approximately 600 earthquakes with magnitudes between 4.0 and 5.0 in just one week (Jan 28 to Feb 4, 2025) is an unprecedented phenomenon for Santorini (Greece), a popular tourist destination in the Aegean Sea. While minor tremors occasionally occur in the region, such a high frequency of moderate-intensity earthquakes over a short period is highly unusual. It has raised concerns among both the local population and scientific communities. Recently, the island has witnessed a sharp increase in seismic activity, with over 600 recorded earthquakes in the past week alone, some reaching magnitudes as high as 5.3 (on Tuesday, 4th February 2025 at 3:04:13 pm GMT +2). This surge in seismic events has sparked widespread unease, prompting Greek authorities to take precautionary measures, including the temporary closure of schools and the evacuation of certain vulnerable areas.

Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) has described the ongoing seismic activity in the Santorini region as an “earthquake swarm,” a term used to define a sequence of numerous small to moderate earthquakes occurring in a localized area over a short period, without a single dominant mainshock. Unlike typical earthquake sequences that follow a mainshock-aftershock pattern, swarms consist of a series of tremors with relatively similar magnitudes that can persist for days, weeks, or even months.

In this case, the Santorini earthquake swarm has been marked by hundreds of tremors, with magnitudes ranging between 4.0 and 5.0, occurring over the span of a single week. This pattern suggests a heightened level of tectonic stress in the region, potentially caused by the ongoing interaction between the African and Eurasian tectonic plates. Earthquake swarms often indicate an adjustment along fault lines, which may or may not lead to a larger seismic event. However, due to the unpredictable nature of such swarms, continuous monitoring is crucial to assess any potential escalation in seismic activity.

AFAD, along with Greek and international seismologists, is closely analyzing the swarm to determine whether it is purely tectonic in origin or could be linked to deeper geological processes, such as magmatic movements beneath Santorini’s volcanic system. While current data suggests that the activity is not directly related to volcanic unrest, earthquake swarms in volcanic regions sometimes precede eruptions, making this a situation of particular interest for geophysical experts. Authorities in both Greece and Turkey have heightened their surveillance efforts, using advanced seismic monitoring equipment to track changes in real-time.

Turkey could potentially be affected by the ongoing earthquake swarm near Santorini, though the extent of the impact depends on various factors, including the swarm’s evolution and the regional tectonic dynamics.

Potential Effects on Turkey:

1. Seismic Impact on Western Turkey:
   • Santorini is part of the Hellenic Arc, a tectonically active region where the African Plate is subducting beneath the Eurasian Plate. This subduction zone extends towards the Aegean Sea, where Turkey’s western coastline, including cities like İzmir, Aydın, and Muğla, is also seismically active.
   • If the current earthquake swarm intensifies or triggers a larger earthquake along a connected fault system, tremors could be felt in parts of western Turkey.
2. Tsunami Risk:
   • A significant earthquake in the Hellenic Arc has the potential to generate a tsunami. Historically, major seismic events in the Santorini region, such as the 1956 Amorgos earthquake, caused tsunamis that reached the Turkish coast.
   • While the current swarm consists of moderate earthquakes, authorities are monitoring for any sudden escalation that could pose a tsunami risk.
3. Volcanic Activity Monitoring:
   • Santorini is a volcanic island, and though experts currently believe the swarm is tectonic rather than volcanic, prolonged seismic activity could indicate deeper geological changes.
   • If there were an unexpected volcanic eruption, ash clouds and atmospheric disturbances could potentially affect air travel and weather patterns in western Turkey.

Current Status & Precautions:

• AFAD (Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority) and Kandilli Observatory are closely monitoring the seismic activity.
• Residents in Turkey’s western coastal regions should stay informed and be prepared for possible tremors.
• No immediate tsunami warning has been issued, but authorities remain vigilant.

While direct effects on Turkey remain uncertain, continued seismic activity in Santorini highlights the interconnected nature of fault systems in the eastern Mediterranean.

As a precautionary measure, local authorities have advised residents and visitors to remain alert, as earthquake swarms can sometimes lead to unexpected aftershocks or stronger seismic events. Emergency response teams remain on standby to ensure public safety, and scientists continue to evaluate the evolving situation to provide accurate risk assessments.

Historically, Santorini has experienced devastating seismic and volcanic events, with one of the most significant being the 1956 earthquake, which triggered a powerful tsunami, causing extensive destruction and loss of life. In an even more distant past, around 1600 BCE, the catastrophic Minoan eruption of the Santorini volcano altered the island’s landscape and is believed to have played a role in the decline of the Minoan civilization. Given this history, the heightened seismic activity is being closely observed by both national and international seismologists, who are working to determine whether the current swarm of earthquakes poses a long-term risk or is part of a temporary tectonic adjustment.

Authorities remain on high alert, urging residents and visitors to stay informed and prepared for potential aftershocks. Emergency response teams have been deployed, and seismic experts are utilizing advanced monitoring systems to track any changes in underground activity. While it is uncertain how long this period of increased seismicity will last, experts emphasize the importance of preparedness, as the region’s geological history suggests that powerful earthquakes can occur with little warning.

Minoan Disaster

The Minoan Disaster refers to the catastrophic volcanic eruption of the Santorini (Thera) volcano around 1600 BCE (estimated between 1642–1540 BCE), which led to the destruction of the Minoan civilization on the island of Crete and had significant regional consequences. This event, also called the Thera Eruption, is considered one of the most powerful volcanic eruptions in human history.

Key Aspects of the Minoan Disaster:

1. The Volcanic Eruption
   • The eruption of Santorini was one of the largest known volcanic events, estimated to be several times more powerful than the 1883 Krakatoa eruption.
   • It released massive amounts of ash, pumice, and gases into the atmosphere, causing widespread environmental and climatic effects.
   • The explosion likely destroyed the Minoan city of Akrotiri on Santorini, which was buried under volcanic ash, similar to how Pompeii was later buried by Mount Vesuvius.
2. Tsunami Impact on Crete
   • The eruption generated massive tsunamis, some estimated to be 35–150 meters (115–490 feet) high, which struck the northern coast of Crete.
   • These tsunamis likely devastated Minoan coastal settlements, harbors, and fleets, severely disrupting trade and agriculture.
   • The waves may have also reached parts of Turkey, Egypt, and the Levant.
3. Climatic and Agricultural Consequences
   • The volcanic ash cloud from the eruption spread across the Eastern Mediterranean, blocking sunlight and causing a temporary global cooling effect.
   • Ashfall likely damaged crops and led to widespread famine in Crete and surrounding regions.
   • The disruption of agriculture and economy weakened the Minoan civilization, making it vulnerable to external invasions.
4. Connection to Atlantis Legend
   • Some scholars speculate that the destruction of Santorini and the collapse of the Minoan civilization may have inspired Plato’s legend of Atlantis, a powerful island civilization that was lost beneath the sea.
5. End of Minoan Civilization
   • While the eruption did not immediately wipe out the Minoan civilization, it weakened its dominance, leading to its decline.
   • The weakened Minoans were later conquered by the Mycenaeans from mainland Greece, marking the end of their cultural supremacy.

Legacy of the Minoan Disaster

The Minoan disaster remains one of the most significant geological and historical events in the ancient world, demonstrating the profound impact of natural disasters on civilizations. Today, Santorini’s caldera and archaeological sites, such as Akrotiri, provide valuable insights into the eruption and its effects.